We propose a novel learning framework based on neural mean-field dynamics for inference and estimation problems of diffusion on networks. Our new framework is derived from the Mori-Zwanzig formalism to obtain an exact evolution of the node infection probabilities, which renders a delay differential equation with memory integral approximated by learnable time convolution operators, resulting in a highly structured and interpretable RNN. Directly using cascade data, our framework can jointly learn the structure of the diffusion network and the evolution of infection probabilities, which are cornerstone to important downstream applications such as influence maximization. Connections between parameter learning and optimal control are also established. Empirical study shows that our approach is versatile and robust to variations of the underlying diffusion network models, and significantly outperform existing approaches in accuracy and efficiency on both synthetic and real-world data.

The risk of indoor airborne transmission among co-located individuals is generally non-uniform, which remains a critical challenge for public health modelling. Thus, we present CompARE, an integrated risk assessment framework for indoor airborne disease transmission that reveals a striking bimodal distribution of infection risk driven by airflow dynamics and human behavior. Combining computational fluid dynamics (CFD), machine learning (ML), and agent-based modeling (ABM), our model captures the complex interplay between aerosol transport, human mobility, and environmental context. Based on a prototypical childcare center, our approach quantifies how incorporation of ABM can unveil significantly different infection risk profiles across agents, with more than two-fold change in risk of infection between the individuals with the lowest and highest risks in more than 90% of cases, despite all individuals being in the same overall environment. We found that infection risk distributions can exhibit not only a striking bimodal pattern in certain activities but also exponential decay and fat-tailed behavior in others. Specifically, we identify low-risk modes arising from source containment, as well as high-risk tails from prolonged close contact. Our approach enables near-real-time scenario analysis and provides policy-relevant quantitative insights into how ventilation design, spatial layout, and social distancing policies can mitigate transmission risk. These findings challenge simple distance-based heuristics and support the design of targeted, evidence-based interventions in high-occupancy indoor settings.

The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is a widely used model for the spread of information and infectious diseases, particularly non-immunizing ones, on a graph. Given a highly contagious disease, a natural question is how to best vaccinate individuals to minimize the disease's extinction time. While previous works showed that the problem of optimal vaccination is closely linked to the NP-hard Spectral Radius Minimization (SRM) problem, they assumed that the graph is known, which is often not the case in practice. In this work, we consider the problem of minimizing the extinction time of an outbreak modeled by an SIS model where the graph on which the disease spreads is unknown and only the infection states of the vertices are observed. To this end, we split the problem into two: learning the graph and determining effective vaccination strategies. We propose a novel inclusion-exclusion-based learning algorithm and, unlike previous approaches, establish its sample complexity for graph recovery. We then detail an optimal algorithm for the SRM problem and prove that its running time is polynomial in the number of vertices for graphs with bounded treewidth. This is complemented by an efficient and effective polynomial-time greedy heuristic for any graph. Finally, we present experiments on synthetic and real-world data that numerically validate our learning and vaccination algorithms.

We propose a novel learning framework based on neural mean-field dynamics for inference and estimation problems of diffusion on networks. Our new framework is derived from the Mori-Zwanzig formalism to obtain an exact evolution of the node infection probabilities, which renders a delay differential equation with memory integral approximated by learnable time convolution operators, resulting in a highly structured and interpretable RNN. Directly using cascade data, our framework can jointly learn the structure of the diffusion network and the evolution of infection probabilities, which are cornerstone to important downstream applications such as influence maximization. Connections between parameter learning and optimal control are also established. Empirical study shows that our approach is versatile and robust to variations of the underlying diffusion network models, and significantly outperform existing approaches in accuracy and efficiency on both synthetic and real-world data.

We develop a simulation framework for studying misinformation spread within online social networks that blends agent-based modeling and natural language processing techniques. While many other agent-based simulations exist in this space, questions over their fidelity and generalization to existing networks in part hinders their ability to provide actionable insights. To partially address these concerns, we create a 'digital clone' of a known misinformation sharing network by downloading social media histories for over ten thousand of its users. We parse these histories to both extract the structure of the network and model the nuanced ways in which information is shared and spread among its members. Unlike many other agent-based methods in this space, information sharing between users in our framework is sensitive to topic of discussion, user preferences, and online community dynamics. To evaluate the fidelity of our method, we seed our cloned network with a set of posts recorded in the base network and compare propagation dynamics between the two, observing reasonable agreement across the twin networks over a variety of metrics. Lastly, we explore how the cloned network may serve as a flexible, low-cost testbed for misinformation countermeasure evaluation and red teaming analysis. We hope the tools explored here augment existing efforts in the space and unlock new opportunities for misinformation countermeasure evaluation, a field that may become increasingly important to consider with the anticipated rise of misinformation campaigns fueled by generative artificial intelligence.

During the Coronavirus 2019 (the covid-19) pandemic, schools continuously strive to provide consistent education to their students. Teachers and education policymakers are seeking ways to re-open schools, as it is necessary for community and economic development. However, in light of the pandemic, schools require customized schedules that can address the health concerns and safety of the students considering classroom sizes, air conditioning equipment, classroom systems, e.g., self-contained or compartmentalized. To solve this issue, we developed the School-Virus-Infection-Simulator (SVIS) for teachers and education policymakers. SVIS simulates the spread of infection at a school considering the students' lesson schedules, classroom volume, air circulation rates in classrooms, and infectability of the students. Thus, teachers and education policymakers can simulate how their school schedules can impact current health concerns. We then demonstrate the impact of several school schedules in self-contained and departmentalized classrooms and evaluate them in terms of the maximum number of students infected simultaneously and the percentage of face-to-face lessons. The results show that increasing classroom ventilation rate is effective, however, the impact is not stable compared to customizing school schedules, in addition, school schedules can differently impact the maximum number of students infected depending on whether classrooms are self-contained or compartmentalized. It was found that one of school schedules had a higher maximum number of students infected, compared to schedules with a higher percentage of face-to-face lessons. SVIS and the simulation results can help teachers and education policymakers plan school schedules appropriately in order to reduce the maximum number of students infected, while also maintaining a certain percentage of face-to-face lessons.